Forecasting Analysis

The Integrated Biosurveillance Branch’s Innovation and Evaluation Section provides forecasting analysis on respiratory disease threats including COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus, and seasonal influenza and tickborne disease threats including Lyme disease and tickborne encephalitis. These data provide senior leaders with a crucial planning tool for expeditious decision-making, enabling them to anticipate potential threats to military health and readiness.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic and growing interest in the impact of seasonal respiratory illnesses on the MHS population, the I&E Section developed a weekly product entitled “Respiratory Regions to Watch” and an accompanying interactive dashboard that combine civilian and military data sources to highlight trends in respiratory illness activity and allow near real-time monitoring of DOD health status across AFHSD Surveillance Regions. In April of 2024, I&E began generating “Tickborne Disease Regions to Watch,” a monthly product which describes tickborne disease activity on and around selected installations in the U.S., Germany, Japan, and the Republic of Korea. This product is accompanied by an online dashboard that includes one- to three-month forecasts of tickborne disease encounters and cases in AFHSD Surveillance Regions.

I&E also generates one- to four-week forecasts of respiratory illness activity in AFHSD Surveillance Regions, including COVID-19, influenza, and RSV, in collaboration with external partners. Forecasting results are distributed weekly and are also uploaded to the Forecasting tab of the AFHSD-IB Respiratory Regions to Watch Dashboard (CAC-enabled).

Key Benefits:

• Data analysis and modeling capabilities for respiratory diseases of military relevance
• Weekly updates highlight AFHSD Regions with increasing COVID-19 activity
• Monthly updates highlight AFHSD Regions with notable tickborne disease activity
• Forecasts for several respiratory syndromes, including CLI, ILI, and RSV
• Interactive dashboards for planning and resource allocation in the MHS
• Routine forecasting to anticipate increasing respiratory disease activity, which may impact military health and readiness