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Modeling the Chemical Warfare Agent Release at the Khamisiyah Pit, Sept. 4, 1997

As part of CIA's and DOD's continued work to support U.S. Government efforts related to the issue of Gulf war veterans' illnesses, this paper highlights the joint CIA-DOD efforts to model the release of chemical warfare agents from the Khamisiyah pit. This modeling exercise has been a joint effort, with significant coordination among multiple agencies and hundreds of people, with expertise ranging from upper atmospheric conditions to soil characteristics. Since July 21, 1997 we have provided many briefings to Secretary Cohen and the Joint Chiefs, DCI Tenet, Senator Rudman, the staff of the National Security Council, the Presidential Advisory Committee, Congressional staffers, representatives from veterans' organizations, and the media. This report is our effort to make this information as widely available as possible.

Robert D. Walpole
Special Assistant to the Director of Central Intelligence for Persian Gulf War Illnesses Issues

Bernard Rostker
Special Assistant to the Deputy Secretary of Defense for Gulf War Illnesses


Reducing General Uncertainties

Refining the Modeling Input Parameters

Dugway and Edgewood Testing

Using an "Ensemble" of Models

Validation of Predicted Meterological Results Against Observations

The Plume and Potential Troop Exposure

Next Steps

Last Updated: December 16, 2022
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